By María Elena Castro, Inter-American Development Bank
On January 10, 2020, the Epidemiological and Health Intelligence Unit of the General Offices of Epidemiology of the Department of Health issued a preventive warning about the risks of traveling to Wuhan, China, due to the appearance of an unidentified disease. On January 21, it issued an Epidemiological Notice delineating methods to identify suspected cases in Mexico in a timely manner, and instituted prevention measures. On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization issued a public health emergency declaration for the coronavirus 019-CoV epidemic. In light of this, Mexico launched a Preparedness and Answer program. On February 28, 2020, the first case of COVID 19 in Mexico was confirmed. The entire year of 2020 was dominated by uncertainty and concern about a disease that seemed to have no effective options for a cure. The initial response promoted by WHO was isolation. This took various shapes in different countries, but it meant the closure of economic and social activities throughout the world. In the second half of 2021, vaccines against the disease appeared and brought some hope. What were expected to be temporary measures lasted throughout 2021 with four separate «waves of COVID 19,» all with deadly and dangerous consequences, particularly because of the spread. Even now, in 2022, we continue with uncertainty but also with hopes of recovery in the areas of health and economy.
In Mexico, a national vaccination strategy was launched in December, 2020 with national coverage. This, along with the strengthening of health services, made it possible to contain the impact of the pandemic. There has been a reduction in infections, fewer hospitalizations and deaths since the end of 2021. The Department of Health has published daily since the beginning of the pandemic. Their report states that as of March 14, 2022, there has been a 95 percent decrease in the number of cases. The highest number of estimated cases reported was 17,864, and overall hospital occupancy was seven percent. An «epidemiological traffic light» was established following criteria delineated by the state health services, and at the moment it considers the whole country as green. The most important factor in monitoring how the pandemic is receding is the national vaccination data. To date, 90 percent of the population aged 18 or over has received at least one dose; 80 percent of the population aged 14 or over is included.
Guanajuato was among the 10 most affected states in the country. But according to the State it is also in recovery, as shown by the data corresponding to the week of March 14–20, 2022. Fortunately, San Miguel de Allende is among the least affected municipalities in the state. For the same reference week, the data is as follows:
Beyond the health consequences of the pandemic, the economic impacts continue to affect Mexico in spite of signs of recovery that are beginning to appear. According to data from the Bank of Mexico, during the first half of 2020, 1.1 million formal jobs were lost. This represented a 5.4 percent reduction in formal jobs registered with the Mexican Institute of Social Security. The greatest losses were recorded between April and May of that year. The recovery of employment began in the second half of 2021 with the creation of more than one million jobs.
In 2021 the economy grew 5.5 percent, with increases of 4.8 percent for the primary sector and 1.6 percent for secondary activities. However, OMICRON had a negative effect on the tertiary sector, which grew by just 0.1 percent; including key activities such as commerce, transportation, accommodation, and restaurants. In the third quarter of 2021, the state of Guanajuato grew 2.3 percent higher than the average of the last five years—1.22 percent.
The impact of the pandemic in San Miguel showed mostly in a drop in tourism, as this is the major activity for the municipality. In 2019, before the pandemic, it registered a tourist influx of 1.6 million visitors who contributed income of 6,682 million pesos; national tourism represented 52 percent of this flow; the state 34 percent; and international 14 percent. In 2020, due to the pandemic, tourism collapsed. Hotel occupancy, which was 60 percent in 2019, fell to just between 10-20 percent. International tourism fell to 1 percent. Overall, the state dropped to 26 percent, and local tourism—including municipalities such as Celaya and León—reached 73 percent and that is their main source of income. However, by mid-2021 the recovery began in spite of the threat of the fourth wave of COVID in a variant called OMICRON. It is estimated that 2021 closed with an occupancy of 45 percent, similar to that of 2019. In the first quarter of 2022, it is expected that an occupancy of 60 percent can be reached.
The recovery of San Miguel falls within a complex socioeconomic framework. There is both uncertainty and optimism, and innovative options to attract visitors are certainly optimistic. According to the Tourism Council, San Miguel has had 346 million pesos coming from private investment, which includes five new hotels.
There was a great influx of tourists during December 2021 in San Miguel, particularly from December 26 to the beginning of the New Year. The crowds and closures of the Jardín were similar to previous years and an indicator of recovery. What do people who live and work in San Miguel think? We will be asking them these questions in future editions.
(To be continued)
Guanajuato was among the 10 most affected states in the country. But according to the State it is also in recovery, as shown by the data corresponding to the week of March 14–20, 2022. Fortunately, San Miguel de Allende is among the least affected municipalities in the state. For the same reference week, the data is as follows:
Beyond the health consequences of the pandemic, the economic impacts continue to affect Mexico in spite of signs of recovery that are beginning to appear. According to data from the Bank of Mexico, during the first half of 2020, 1.1 million formal jobs were lost. This represented a 5.4 percent reduction in formal jobs registered with the Mexican Institute of Social Security. The greatest losses were recorded between April and May of that year. The recovery of employment began in the second half of 2021 with the creation of more than one million jobs.
In 2021 the economy grew 5.5 percent, with increases of 4.8 percent for the primary sector and 1.6 percent for secondary activities. However, OMICRON had a negative effect on the tertiary sector, which grew by just 0.1 percent; including key activities such as commerce, transportation, accommodation, and restaurants. In the third quarter of 2021, the state of Guanajuato grew 2.3 percent higher than the average of the last five years—1.22 percent.
The impact of the pandemic in San Miguel showed mostly in a drop in tourism, as this is the major activity for the municipality. In 2019, before the pandemic, it registered a tourist influx of 1.6 million visitors who contributed income of 6,682 million pesos; national tourism represented 52 percent of this flow; the state 34 percent; and international 14 percent. In 2020, due to the pandemic, tourism collapsed. Hotel occupancy, which was 60 percent in 2019, fell to just between 10-20 percent. International tourism fell to 1 percent. Overall, the state dropped to 26 percent, and local tourism—including municipalities such as Celaya and León—reached 73 percent and that is their main source of income. However, by mid-2021 the recovery began in spite of the threat of the fourth wave of COVID in a variant called OMICRON. It is estimated that 2021 closed with an occupancy of 45 percent, similar to that of 2019. In the first quarter of 2022, it is expected that an occupancy of 60 percent can be reached.
The recovery of San Miguel falls within a complex socioeconomic framework. There is both uncertainty and optimism, and innovative options to attract visitors are certainly optimistic. According to the Tourism Council, San Miguel has had 346 million pesos coming from private investment, which includes five new hotels.
There was a great influx of tourists during December 2021 in San Miguel, particularly from December 26 to the beginning of the New Year. The crowds and closures of the Jardín were similar to previous years and an indicator of recovery. What do people who live and work in San Miguel think? We will be asking them these questions in future editions.
(To be continued)
