By Kathleen Bohne
Next Sunday, 11 million voters in six Mexican states (Aguascalientes, Durango, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas) will elect new governors, as well as mayors and Congressional representatives. Last June, the largest number of simultaneous federal and local elections ever held—in all 32 states—brought the ruling party, MORENA, a total of 16 governorships. While the elections were marred by violence—35 candidates were murdered—reports of electoral irregularities (other than assassination of course) or fraud were minimal.
The campaign season this year has been much quieter, but the outcomes of these elections will begin to set the stage for the grand presidential battle of 2024. According to recent polls, MORENA is ahead in 4 of the 6 governor’s races (none of which is currently governed by MORENA) and could be on the path to hegemony once blazed by the PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional), which may find itself with the weakest national presence in its history.
Democratic political ecosystems are diverse. The plurality of possibilities creates features peculiar to each political system, which is why citizens of one democracy (the United States, for example) might find themselves at a loss in the Mexican political landscape. While “polarization” is the buzzword across global political discourse, in the U.S. its intensity is reinforcing the two-party division to such a degree that one can often identify someone as “red” or “blue” from an ever-greater distance.
There is certainly no shortage of vitriol in Mexican politics—in fact, it is a national extreme sport—but generalizations have been harder to make and ideological persuasions harder to identify. I’ve known priístas who are devout Catholics even though the party was founded by the most staunchly anticlerical president in Mexico’s history, and panistas who have little interest in religion though their party is the bastion of conservative Catholics. However, the emergence of MORENA under Andrés Manuel López Obrador catalyzed an inevitable “us” vs “him” phenomenon since AMLO is the master of the black and white populist narrative, the epic mythology of heroic politics. He and the “Junto Haremos Historia” coalition (MORENA-PVEM-PT) have skillfully put the opposition in an unenviable position: no single party is strong enough to confront them, but their alliances are viewed cynically by voters. “Va por México”, the alliance of PRI-PAN-PRD, was formed in 2020 and has so far accumulated more defeats than victories. Rumors circulate of “PRIMOR” (PRI-MORENA), which isn’t too surprising since many members of MORENA are ex-priístas. Voters are left disillusioned with the “chapulineo” or “grasshopper-ing” of politicians from one party to another and the formation of ideologically awkward relationships.
Feeling lost yet?
Any explorer in a new landscape needs a field guide. Consider this yours for the Mexican political jungle, which you will have the opportunity to observe next Sunday.
MORENA (Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional), “National Regeneration Movement”
Adherents: morenistas
- Founded: 2011
- Presidents: Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-24)
MORENA was formed by AMLO during his bid for the presidency in 2012, in alliance with the Partido de Trabajo (PT) and Partido Encuentro Social (PES). Today it is not only the ruling party at a federal level, but has made significant inroads at a local level, with many former members of the PRI joining their ranks. MORENA is now in a coalition with the Partido Verde Ecologista de México (PVEM) and the PT.
PRI (Partido Revoluctionario Institucional), “Institutional Revolutionary Party”
Adherents: priístas
- Founded: 1929
- Presidents: All of them for 70 years before PAN victory in 2000. Most recently, Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-18)
The PRI is a remarkable political oddity. It is a party with no clear ideology, the creator of a seven decade-long “perfect dictatorship”, an adaptable survivor. From 1929 to 1982, the PRI “won” every presidential election by well over 70 percent of the vote and also dominated in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. Every Mexican state was ruled by a PRI governor until 1989, when Baja California went rogue and elected a PAN candidate. The PRI isn’t just another performer in the Mexican political spectacle; it has been the ringmaster.
PAN (Partido de Acción Nacional), “National Action Party”
Adherents: panistas
- Founded: 1939
- Presidents: Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (2006-2012), Vicente Fox Quesada (2000-2006)
The PAN has the longest history as “the opposition” in Mexico, founded as a conservative, Catholic counterweight to the PRI by lawyer and politician Manuel Gómez Marín (one of the founders of the Banco de México). The party struggled to gain a foothold, though it participated in elections throughout the decades of PRI dominance. In coalition with the PVEM (Partido Verde Ecologista de México), the PAN candidate, businessman Vicente Fox Quesada, won with 42% of the vote: a watershed moment in Mexico’s history as a democracy.
PRD (Partido de la Revolución Democrática), “Democratic Revolution Party”
- Adherents: perredistas
- Founded: 1989
- No presidents
Before AMLO’s star began to rise, the leftist orator who inspired Mexican voters (and lost elections to alleged fraud) was Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, son of revered President Lázaro Cárdenas (1934-40). In 1989, Cárdenas founded the PRD upon the heels of the first election that revealed cracks in the príista edifice. The coalition of leftist parties led by Cárdenas had gained traction and on the day of the vote, the computer-based counting system “crashed”. Once it was restored, the PRI candidate (Carlos Salinas) was declared the winner and “se cayó el sistema” entered the Mexican political lexicon as shorthand for electoral fraud.
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