Safest in San Miguel

By Miguel Kelley

Mexico is a popular location for expatriates from the other two countries in North America, with advantages in cost of living and quality of life. San Miguel de Allende’s unique advantages have resulted in a stable expatriate population of more than 10,000, as well as a nearly equal number of snowbirds. One important component of quality of life is personal safety and San Miguel is an exceptionally safe city, as we will see from the statistics made available by the Federal Government’s Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública.

The 2020 census counted 126 million people in Mexico; with 6.2 million inhabitants, Guanajuato is the 5^th largest state. Within this state, San Miguel de Allende is the 7^th largest county. Of the 160 thousand people living in this county, 72 thousand live in the city of San Miguel.

We will compare San Miguel to the other seven of the eight largest cities in Guanajuato and will focus on three categories that most directly affect us: homicide, drug dealing and home burglary.

The headlines about Mexico often focus only on the homicide rate; fortunately for all, the most visible effect of the current federal government’s public safety strategy has been a reduced homicide rate.

The state of Guanajuato does not have an encouraging record in homicides. In 2012, the state ranked 14^th in the nation in the number of homicides, but for the last three years has ranked 1^st. In 2020 the state ranked 4^th in the homicide rate per capita, at 50 deaths per 100K inhabitants. Most observers attribute this increase to the dispute between cartels for control of the territory. San Miguel has been insulated from this struggle.

The good news for San Miguelenses is that we rank lowest in homicides amongst the top eight cities. In 2022, Celaya experienced 87 homicides per 100K inhabitants; San Miguel had only 1/3 that rate, at 29 homicides per 100K inhabitants. The average for the top eight cities is 42.

Where does San Miguel stand in all three of the categories of public safety that are most relevant to expats? Here are the actual numbers (not the per capita numbers):

As in homicide, we rank lowest in drug dealing. We as homeowners, supported by the police, have most control over the third measure of public safety, which is home burglary. How do we control burglaries? We harden our houses and we install alarm systems. With 145 home burglaries per 100K inhabitants, we rank second to the city of Guanajuato’s 214, while the average in the top eight cities is 99. Given the affluent expatriate community, perhaps the high number of tempting targets results in a higher number of burglaries.

Fortunately, we have been able to significantly reduce the rate of home burglaries, with a 21% drop from 2021 to 2022. An important part of this decrease can be attributed to the neighborhood watch program in San Antonio. In 2020, a neighborhood association installed 128 video cameras, and began with a classic neighborhood watch program. They added a dedicated camera monitoring specialist, working in the city-supplied security trailer on the edge of the plaza. This pro-active surveillance is augmented by a WhatsApp chat group with 90 active participants. The camera monitor and the WhatsApp group have direct access to the police, resulting in quick response times and a dramatic 70% reduction in home burglaries.

To replicate San Antonio’s success, we now have at our disposal the State of Guanajuato’s Sumate program, an innovative public-private partnership which seeks to strengthen and optimize the surveillance infrastructure in the state. This program began two years ago in Leon. Neighborhood groups, business and residential, purchased video cameras and connected them to Leon’s C4 (Command, Control, Communications and Computing), for 7 x 24 monitoring at no cost to the participating businesses and families. A new division was formed within the state’s C5 (C4 plus Coordination) to drive the Súmate program, which meets the US’s CALEA standard (www.calea.org). A neighborhood group in Ojo de Agua may soon be the pioneers for the Súmate program in San Miguel.

How does San Miguel compare to the five cities in Mexico that are most popular amongst expatriates? 

Rosarito is clearly the least safe of these cities, with a per capita homicide rate that is seven times greater than the average for the other four cities. Rosarito’s arrest rate for dealing drugs is 2.5 times greater than the average for the other four. What is surprising is the low murder rate in Mexico City. Roma and Condesa are in the Alcaldia Cuauhtemoc; the “alcaldia” is equivalent to a “municipio” (county) in the rest of the country. 

It may also seem surprising that Roma and Condesa have the lowest rate of home burglaries in the expat enclaves, but there are at least two factors that contribute to this relatively low level of burglaries. First, much of the population lives in apartment buildings where home invasion is difficult. In fact, many of the burglaries are inside jobs, as my wife and I know from personal experience during 15 years in an apartment in Polanco. Second, Mexico City has an excellent citywide video surveillance network, with an experienced and sophisticated C5 that has publicized some spectacular cases of tracking bad guys across the video footprints of multiple cameras. Although it is of little comfort to our neighbors who have experienced the violation of a home burglary, our burglary rate in San Miguel is essentially the same as the rate in Chapala and Rosarito. 

Clearly, the most important measure of safety is our life; San Miguel de Allende is the safest of the eight top cities in Guanajuato in the protection of life. As to the protection of our property, we have returned to the level of safety of 2016, and the outlook for even greater safety is quite encouraging. Given the success of San Antonio’s neighborhood surveillance program, and the availability of the Súmate program, we will soon be as safe as our fellow expats in Roma and Condesa.

An opinion from David Bossman about security: 

“I believe that Security has improved… although it may not always seem that way. Cartel violence is unpredictable & so far, we have had no known cases of collateral damage… as in other regional cities where innocent people have been victimized. Police morale is high and their training is improving. The fact that our Municipal Police are responding to emergency calls in an average time of less than ten minutes is no coincidence; better allocation of personnel has resulted in more arrests. Because of greater transparency by our local government, Sanmiguelenses are more well informed and are more likely to report suspicious activity in their neighborhoods. With more parks and recreational areas, our young people have more outdoor activities available during the warm weather. Crime goes down when teens are occupied. Citizens are beginning to realize that Better Security is Everybody’s Business.”

– David Bossman

Source: Reportes de incidencia delictiva al mes de marzo 2023 (Nueva metodología). Cifras de Incidencia Delictiva Estatal, 2015 – marzo  2023, Gobierno de México