By Alejandro Angulo
World Environment Day is celebrated on June 5, a date established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1972 to raise global awareness about the importance of protecting and preserving our natural environment. Every year, the celebration focuses on a specific theme. To highlight a particular environmental problem, various activities and events are organized around the world. Some of the topics addressed in previous years were air pollution, biodiversity, climate change, oceans, waste management, and forest conservation. Now, after celebrating how we all appear to be planting trees, cleaning beaches, or giving speeches, global warming and climate change are still the main problems. The question is, how much are we doing locally, nationally, and globally to stop the deterioration of the environment?
Global warming refers to the gradual increase in the Earth’s average temperature due to increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere primarily caused by human activity such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial production. According to the Paris Agreement—an international agreement adopted in 2015—the objective is to keep the increase in global temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Staying within these parameters, which are pre-industrial levels, is considered essential.
Here are some reasons why it’s important to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Impact on ecosystems: The increase in temperature can have serious consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystems including loss of biodiversity, the bleaching of coral reefs, the extinction of species, and the alteration of the migration patterns of animals and plants.
Rising sea levels: Global warming is linked to the melting of polar ice caps and glaciers leading to a rise in sea levels. This poses a threat to low-lying coastal areas and islands with the risk of more frequent and severe flooding as well as loss of coastal habitats.
Extreme weather events: Climate change is associated with an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, storms, floods, and heat waves. These events can have a devastating impact on agriculture, food security, infrastructure, and human health.
Scarcity of natural resources: Global warming can affect the availability of natural resources such as fresh water and agricultural crops which could trigger conflicts over resources and exacerbate socioeconomic inequalities.
To achieve the goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is required. Also required is a transition to renewable energy sources, the conservation of natural ecosystems, and the adoption of sustainable practices in all sectors. International collaboration and the commitment of governments, companies, and citizens are necessary to take concrete and urgent measures in the fight against climate change.
The figures change each year regarding the probability that 1.5 degrees C will be exceeded. It all started with an estimate of 20%, and the previous year 50% was forecast. You may wonder why the probability increases. There is no explanation other than the worldwide delay in implementing mitigation measures. Researchers claim that this year there is a 66% chance of us exceeding the 1.5 degrees C global warming threshold by 2027. Chances are increased not only by the delay but also by emissions and likely El Niño weather patterns later this year. Breaking that limit, even for just one year, is a worrying sign that the calendar is speeding up and not slowing down. Scientists say there is still a little time to curb global warming, but drastic reductions in emissions are required.
El Niño is a meteorological phenomenon with global implications. For the past three years, La Niña has dampened climate warming to some degree, but now, the additional heat that El Niño will bring to the Pacific will likely drive global temperatures to a new high next year. The IPCC reports show that we can prevent irreversible damage to people and the planet if we scale up the proven solutions available now. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, increasing energy efficiency, and reducing energy and resource use are the safest paths to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C.
The IPCC report notes that CO2 removal will be needed to offset ‶difficult-to-reduce residual greenhouse gas emissions″ to reach zero net CO2 or greenhouse gas emissions. Sectors with difficult-to-reduce emissions include agriculture, aviation, shipping, and industrial processes. They are considered difficult to reduce due to a lack of technology or the high cost of decarbonization.
Climate change can impact the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countries, and according to the May 17 report by Bloomberg Línea (global financial information and news company), Colombia and Venezuela would be the countries most affected at around 20% of GDP, Mexico is estimated at 17.5%, Brazil at 17.8%, and Uruguay at 14%.
There is, therefore, a great probability that exceeding 1.5 degrees C by 2027 will occur since 50% has already been exceeded and the trend has been to increase. It will still be necessary to analyze whether there will be a more drastic positive response from governments, companies, and citizens to reduce emissions. If the response is positive and drastic, consider whether the means and actions will be the most appropriate for the short time we have left.
During this week of celebrations and events related to the environment, we at Atención San Miguel want to recognize the people and organizations that work throughout the year toward the recovery, conservation, and protection of the environment. Although we cannot mention all of them, it is important to recognize organizations such as Salvemos al Río Laja, Charco del Ingenio, Caminos de Agua, Cuerpos de Conservación de Agua de Guanajuato, Fondo de Apoyo Infantil, Audubon, Club de Rotarios, Vía Orgánica, and El Maíz más Pequeño, among others.
Meanwhile, San Miguel de Allende has important challenges to overcome: accelerated urban growth, water and air pollution, deforestation, and other issues. The problems are varied and complex, and we have a wide and diverse territory. At this time, we are facing the serious problem of the Allende dam affected by the proliferation of the lily. Unfortunately, it has become part of the everyday landscape and, at the same time, it is a stark reminder of the consequences of the mismanagement of natural resources and urban development we have experienced for decades. We will be monitoring and publishing information about the actions that civil society is organizing to address this problem.
